Nickel varieties:
Mysteel data shows that the output of 32 domestic stainless steel plants in China increased by 5.37% in May, of which the 300 series increased by 3.09%. It is expected that the output of 300 series in June will increase by 5.48%. Due to low stainless steel inventories and profit recovery, stainless steel production continues to rise, and nickel demand is good.
According to Mysteel data, the production of ferronickel in China and Indonesia increased by 12.2% month-on-month in May. The production of ferronickel in Indonesia continued to climb. The domestic production of ferronickel in May also rebounded from April. It is expected that there will still be a certain increase in June.
However, the current distribution of nickel ore stocks in the hands of domestic ferronickel plants is uneven, and the tight supply pattern of nickel ore still exists in the short term. The supply of ferronickel is tight and the inventory is at a low level. The prices of ferronickel plants are still relatively strong, while the pressure on the supply of nickel ferrites Larger.
Viewpoint: The current inventory of ferronickel is low, the supply of nickel ore is still tight, the price of ferronickel remains strong, and the demand for nickel in stainless steel also performs well. There is still some support for nickel supply and demand. As the general environment picks up, nickel prices are short-term Treat with multiple thoughts. From the mid-line point of view, Indonesia's ferronickel production capacity has been put into production one after another, and the global average cost of primary nickel continues to move down. In the future, ferronickel supply may gradually surplus, and nickel prices may still bottom out again. Later global nickel supply may require some production capacity to clear. Price can usher in a real turning point.
Strategy: Unilateral: Nickel prices fluctuate strongly in the short term as the general environment picks up; the midline supply pressure is still not optimistic.
Key points of concern: Philippines and Indonesia epidemic situation and policy changes, the situation of new crown epidemic situation in other countries overseas, stainless steel inventory, China's new energy vehicle policy, and the progress of new capacity production.
Stainless steel varieties:
Mysteel data shows that the social inventory of 300-series stainless steels in Foshan and Wuxi, China increased slightly last week, the hot-rolled inventory slightly rebounded, and the cold-rolled inventory decreased slightly. China's chromium ore port stocks rebounded slightly, chromium ore prices remain strong, and stainless steel mills have high purchase prices for high-carbon ferrochromium. Recently, the prices of stainless steel raw materials nickel ferrochrome and ferrochromium are on the high side, and the stainless steel stocks continue to decline. The steel mills have a strong willingness to increase prices, but the spot sales of stainless steel are also weak. The spot market is in a weak supply and demand situation. Retreated slightly.
Viewpoint: The prices of stainless steel raw materials are firm, nickel-iron stocks are at a low level, and stainless steel spot resources are tight. In the short term, 304 stainless steel prices still have a certain supporting force, but the current stainless steel is in the traditional low season of consumption. The high prices lead to weak demand and short-term upward strength. It is not enough, the price may remain weak and fluctuate, and as time delays, the pressure of stainless steel may gradually increase. From the mid-line point of view, stainless steel output continues to rise, while demand may weaken. In the future, there is a high probability of ferronickel supply being excessive. The disruption of the epidemic on the supply side is a short-term phenomenon. The recent increase in stainless steel prices is only a rebound stage, and the price of mid-line stainless steel is short.
Strategy: Stainless steel prices remain volatile for a short period of time, wait and see; the mid-line bearish.
Points of attention: Epidemic situation and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, stainless steel inventories, NPI in China and Indonesia, and progress in the production of new stainless steel production capacity.
![Short-term demand for nickel increases, stainless steel pressure gradually increases]()