Nickel varieties:
According to SMM, after the holiday, the steel mill started a wave of purchases, and the market transaction and negotiation prices were lower. The price of a large stainless steel factory in the south was lowered to 960 yuan/nickel point (including tax to the plant), but there was no transaction. Stainless steel mills have suppressed high ferronickel purchase prices due to poor profits, but nickel ore prices have remained high and there is limited room for downward ferronickel prices. The current supply and demand of nickel is neutral, while the midline is pessimistic. Recently, domestic nickel ore prices have remained strong. Although nickel ore port inventories have rebounded, nickel ore resources are concentrated in the hands of large manufacturers; the decline in nickel ore grades in the Philippines may lead to a decline in domestic high nickel and iron grades, and short-term supply is still not ample; stainless steel The continued rebound in production supported nickel consumption, and the margin of overseas consumption improved.
Nickel's view: Nickel's current supply and demand neutrality is slightly weaker, but the contradiction is not sharp, the upside and downside space are limited, and the nickel price is affected by the macro atmosphere and capital more than its own supply and demand. Due to the weakening of the macro atmosphere in the short term, the market has regained concerns about the supply of midline ferronickel and nickel prices are operating weakly, but the short-term downside may be relatively limited. From the mid-line point of view, with the increase of Indonesia's ferronickel production capacity, the supply of ferronickel may be gradually surplus in the fourth quarter, and nickel prices may still bottom out again. Global nickel supply may require some production capacity to clear before nickel prices can usher in a real inflection point .
Nickel strategy: unilateral: nickel prices remain volatile in the short term; midline is bearish.
Nickel concerns: Indonesian nickel mine policy, epidemic situation and policy change in the Philippines and Indonesia, Indonesian nickel iron production progress, large-scale traditional nickel enterprise supply changes, automobile policy, ternary battery and alternative battery technology development.
Stainless steel varieties:
Yesterday, Yongjin 304 cold-rolled August sales guidance price increased by RMB 100/ton, due to tight cold-rolled resources, the price performance was firm. Although the supply pressure in the future market is worrying, the short-term spot is still tight and there is cost support below, so it is difficult to open the price downward space.
Stainless steel view: The supply of 300 series stainless steel continues to increase, and stainless steel inventories may rise in July. The upward space for 304 stainless steel prices is relatively limited. However, due to the firm raw material prices, export demand is also recovering, domestic consumption performance is acceptable, and short-term Supported by costs, prices may remain volatile. From the mid-line point of view, the supply pressure of ferronickel in Indonesia will all affect the price of stainless steel. With the gradual surplus of ferronickel supply, the price of stainless steel may fall immediately following the cost, and the price of the midline is short.
Stainless steel strategy: short-term wait and see of stainless steel prices; midline bearish.
The main points of concern for stainless steel: the epidemic situation and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, stainless steel inventories, NPI in China and Indonesia, and the progress of the new stainless steel production capacity.
![Nickel ore prices are high, stainless steel mills' inquiry for high nickel iron is weak]()